Well seeing as the government is consistently having to shore up its own military forces in order to maintain loyalty, I'd say their position is getting continually weaker. They also don't seem to have much real influence outside the city walls. The Peoples' Resistance seems like its building a solid foundation in the bandit caves, but if they were found they could easily be slaughtered. Of course in this world, unlike ours, people have super psychic powers. Its a fictional universe, where one man can grow to a level of strength as to rain down massive destruction on entire groups of men. While this kind of power benefits both the army and the guerrilla force, I'd say it would aid a guerrilla more. Add that to the fact that while the army DOES seem to use this power, it at least seems to avoid using it in their primary forces. I'd say that the Peoples' Resistance has a pretty slim chance of victory in the beginning, but assuming that they can avoid having their base of operations discovered (or that they have an appropriate escape/backup plan) they will only grow and the Army will continue to lose men. Of course, maybe I'm overestimating the role the "Gift" will play in this conflict, but I doubt it.
