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Author Topic: What party will win in 2012?  (Read 17828 times)

Deagonx

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What party will win in 2012?
« on: September 05, 2011, 07:18:05 PM »

I think that Clasher235 explained it best in saying:

“There are rarely 2 people of the same party elected in a row because everyone thinks the new president will solve all their problems, but when he doesn’t do all of the amazing things he/she said he/she would, everyone swaps parties thinking that the other candidate will solve their problems.”

That is generally why I figure a republican will win in 2012. That and I think Obama’s race had a very strong influence on the ratings. He was not in the senate for a particularly long time either.

But, all that aside I want to know: Do you think Obama will be re-elected? Or will a republican candidate (Such as Michelle Bachmann) be elected instead? Why do you feel this way?
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2011, 02:07:30 PM »

I think that Clasher235 explained it best in saying:
“There are rarely 2 people of the same party elected in a row because everyone thinks the new president will solve all their problems, but when he doesn’t do all of the amazing things he/she said he/she would, everyone swaps parties thinking that the other candidate will solve their problems.”
You know the incumbent usually wins.  Being the president helps the canidate get publicity.  Obama tried to take advantage of this by trying to have his "jobs speech" at the same time as the Republican debate, so his speech in congress would overshadow the Republican presidental candidates.

Everyone says that Obama can't win if unemployment is still high, but I am more skeptical.  If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination, then I am pretty sure Obama will lose.  If Rick Perry wins the Republican nomination, then I think Obama will win.  Since Obama is a master at manipulating the press, I think he could spin things as the Tea Party being the cause for the current high unemployment.  He will then constantly associate Rick Petty with the Tea Party and George Bush.

""It's the economy, stupid".  Republicans best chance at winning is to show that Obama's priority has never been the economy.  They need to point out that all he cared about is boosting unions and socializing healthcare.  Jobs weren't a priority untill he needed to run for reelection.

Dean_Lukas

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2011, 02:49:00 PM »

I don't see any of the Republican candidates beating Obama head-to-head. As previously stated, the incumbent is at a big advantage.
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2011, 10:29:54 PM »

I don't see any of the Republican candidates beating Obama head-to-head. As previously stated, the incumbent is at a big advantage.
Obama shares many similarities with Jimmy Carter.  They both spent more time blaming others, then improving the economy.  Because the president let economy get worst under his watch, he will not get a second term.

I think the economy will get better if Obama leaves office.  Obama's class-warfare, anti-business, big government rhetoric makes companies too scared to spend money.  Lets take the health care law for example.  Companies are now unwilling to hire more workers because they can't afford to pay for health insurance for new employees.  His rhetoric about increasing taxes on oil companies and increasing EPA regulation makes companies worried about an increase in the cost of energy.  Obama's Pro-Union rhetoric make companies unwilling to expand because they fear that Obama will step in to make labor cost more (Obama wouldn't allow Boeing to build a new, bigger plant in South Carolina, because South Carolina is a right to work state).  Obama's rhetoric about increasing the capital gains tax makes companies worried that he will make the value of stock dramatically decrease.  Basically, big business doesn't trust Obama, so they are waiting for economic and political conditions to improve before they are willing to spend money again. Like when Ronald Reagan replaced Jimmy Carter, a fiscal conservative will bring confidence to job creators after he replaces an incompetent liberal.

Dean_Lukas

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2011, 12:42:04 PM »

I'm not sure if the economy is bad enough for the Carter factor to come into play. Remember that outside of him and H.W. Bush, every president since 1980 has one re-election when they ran for it.

None of these candidates are the next Reagan for sure. Romney didn't do well in 2008 and he won't win for the same reasons he didn't then. Bachmann might not be as crazy as the media likes to paint her but she's still inexperienced and has some extreme positions. And Perry has to deal with being another Texas governor. While I like him much better than Bush it's an unfortunate association.

Granted, Obama is much less popular than he was a few years ago. Burt will any of these three be able to capture independents? I don't know about that.
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2011, 02:53:48 PM »

I'm not sure if the economy is bad enough for the Carter factor to come into play. Remember that outside of him and H.W. Bush, every president since 1980 has one re-election when they ran for it.
Both Carter and H. W. Bush lost their reelection because the public didn't think the presidents were doing enough to improve a bad enconomy.  Incumbents tend to lose when the economy is getting worst.  The economy is alot worst with Obama then both Carter and Bush.

None of these candidates are the next Reagan for sure. Romney didn't do well in 2008 and he won't win for the same reasons he didn't then. Bachmann might not be as crazy as the media likes to paint her but she's still inexperienced and has some extreme positions. And Perry has to deal with being another Texas governor. While I like him much better than Bush it's an unfortunate association.
Romney is a candidate who is hard to get excited about, but I think he will get alot of anti-Obama votes like 2008 Obama got alot of anti-Bush votes.  Bachmann isn't even worth mentioning, because she is not going to be the nominee.  America has a short attention span, so I think most Americans forgot that Bush was a Texas governor.  Since all the Republican nominees are pro-business, they will bring more confidence to the economy then Obama.

Granted, Obama is much less popular than he was a few years ago. But will any of these three be able to capture independents? I don't know about that.
Romney can easliy win independents because he is a moderate.  Bachmann isn't worth mentioning, because she isn't going to be the nominee.  Perry has a good of chance to get independents as Obama does.  While candidate Obama won independents because he pretended to be a moderate, President Obama's record shows that he is far from the center.

Deagonx

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2011, 12:46:29 PM »

Smarty, you seem to be a republican. But my question is what republican candidate would you PREFER to be president.

And, when answering, I don't want you to consider who is more likely to beat out Obama. Just, if you had to pick one that would definitely win. Who would it be?


Mitt Romney seems great. But he is a mormon. :/
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2011, 01:29:14 PM »

Smarty, you seem to be a republican. But my question is what republican candidate would you PREFER to be president.
That is untrue.  I consider myself an independent.  I do prefer fiscal conservatives which tend to be Republicans, but there are Democrat fiscal conservatives which I like such as Bill Clinton.   I really wish Hillary Clinton won the 2008 primary, because she would have competently run the government after the health care debate was over.

And, when answering, I don't want you to consider who is more likely to beat out Obama. Just, if you had to pick one that would definitely win. Who would it be?
I’m a Texas boy who already voted for Perry for governor, so it obvious who I would support.  Rick Perry is a strong supporter of state rights and a smaller federal government which mirrors my beliefs.  His economic polices in Texas has brought tons of jobs and money into the state which is quite an accomplishment during a recession.  Although I tend to dislike social conservatives, I am okay with Perry because he is all talk and no action when it comes to being a social conservative.  I do disagree with a lot of his immigration policies, but no candidate is perfect.  He also has some military experience which seems necessary for someone who is going to be commander-in-chief.

Even though I prefer Perry, I think Romney still be a successful president.  After Obama polarized congress with his partisan health care bill, it would nice to have a president who is an actual moderate.  Romney has both business and executive experience, so he would likely create a climate that businesses will be willing and able to spend money and create jobs in.  I do have trouble trusting him, because the views he claims to have are often different then what he actually did as governor of Massachusetts.

Although I find Herman Cain extremely likable and respectable, I don’t think he has the qualifications to be president.  I don’t think we should replace one inexperienced president for another.  I think every president needs to have executive experience such as being a governor or a mayor of a large city.  Unlike Perry and Romney, Cain lacks the executive experience required to be President.  Being a self-made made who’s rags to riches story is proof of the American dream is still alive.  If he was using his “accomplishment over entitlement” rhetoric alongside his business experience to run as my Congressman or Senator, then I would definitely vote for him.

Michele Bachmann is such a huge social conservative that Obama almost seems more appealing to me.

Mitt Romney seems great. But he is a mormon. :/
Even though I think Mormonism is clearly a made up religion, I don't think Romney's religion is an issue.  People had the same issue with JFK's Catholicism, but his religious beliefs didn't cause any major issue.

Deagonx

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2011, 01:53:29 PM »

I respect other people's religons, but because Mormons are a distinct branch off of my religion and have such... other worldly beliefs, I cannot agree with them.

Like, for example, they believe Satan, yes, Satan, was the brother of Jesus who also wanted to be the savior, which is why he rebelled against god.


They also believe Adam, from Adam and Eve is actually God.

And it pains me to know one of my close friends recently converted to mormonism. (Mormon means gates of hell in chinese.)
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2011, 01:59:40 PM »

How will any of that effect his role as the president?
Do you think Romney will cause a nuclear holocaust because he believe Satan was the brother of Jesus?

Deagonx

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2011, 02:47:27 PM »

How will any of that effect his role as the president?
Do you think Romney will cause a nuclear holocaust because he believe Satan was the brother of Jesus?

Well he might push for 'mormon' rights such as polygamy.
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2011, 02:53:28 PM »

The mainstream Mormon church doesn't believe in polygamy anymore.

Do you have any more prejudice assumptions about Romney and his religion?

ArtDrake

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2011, 03:31:48 PM »

Look, that's completely inappropriate, Deagonx.

While you may be right, and I'm not ready to say that you are, yet, I can tell you right off that "mormon" does not mean "gates of hell" in Chinese. They don't have a "mor" syllable. Gates of hell, in Traditional Chinese, can be transliterated as follows: "gai tsu da diyu."

And all religions are made up, as far as I'm concerned. They all have holy books that insist that their god is real, and you can only hope to achieve more than epic and eternal despair by joining their religion. It's like chain mail.
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SmartyPants

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2011, 03:45:38 PM »

Deagonx's comments are similar to the prejudice held towards John F. Kennedy.  Even though JFK was Catholic, he didn't allow the Pope to run the country.

Deagonx

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Re: What party will win in 2012?
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2011, 08:31:48 PM »

The mainstream Mormon church doesn't believe in polygamy anymore.

Do you have any more prejudice assumptions about Romney and his religion?

1. Brigham young would disagree

2. We all have our prejudice's, and while I'm generally tolerant of other religions this one is a completely disgrace of the religion they tried to branch off of.
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