After reading this study (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/04/23/92798/study-highlights-problems-for.html) on the characteristics of insurgencies that win and insurgencies that lose, I got to thinking: what are the chances for the Peoples' Resistance in TSoG? What do you think?
Well seeing as the government is consistently having to shore up its own military forces in order to maintain loyalty, I'd say their position is getting continually weaker. They also don't seem to have much real influence outside the city walls. The Peoples' Resistance seems like its building a solid foundation in the bandit caves, but if they were found they could easily be slaughtered. Of course in this world, unlike ours, people have super psychic powers. Its a fictional universe, where one man can grow to a level of strength as to rain down massive destruction on entire groups of men. While this kind of power benefits both the army and the guerrilla force, I'd say it would aid a guerrilla more. Add that to the fact that while the army DOES seem to use this power, it at least seems to avoid using it in their primary forces. I'd say that the Peoples' Resistance has a pretty slim chance of victory in the beginning, but assuming that they can avoid having their base of operations discovered (or that they have an appropriate escape/backup plan) they will only grow and the Army will continue to lose men. Of course, maybe I'm overestimating the role the "Gift" will play in this conflict, but I doubt it.
I agree, but the peoples resistance doesn't have many powerful psy's. Yet.
But, anyway, the peoples resistance HAVE to win; What would be the point of the game otherwise! ;)
To set up a sequel?
heh, the cult doesn't use "psys" now but keep in mind, the is likely the first draft (http://www.toonpool.com/user/997/files/just_first_draft_king_soldiers_351585.jpg).
I'm hopefull that we'll see some high-powered psy cultists.
The government highlights the importance of a strong government. From what I can tell, the Cult has a strong government. One of the biggest factors are the people of the nation. I am unsure if most citizens support the new government or if they wish for the overthrow of the Theocracy. The one with the greater support usually wins.
Quote from: Zhampir on April 26, 2010, 02:37:26 PM
heh, the cult doesn't use "psys" now but keep in mind, the is likely the first draft (http://www.toonpool.com/user/997/files/just_first_draft_king_soldiers_351585.jpg).
I'm hopefull that we'll see some high-powered psy cultists.
zhampir is right the cult completely despises psy's and are imprisoning anyone who gets accused of having the gift
I think they have a good chance, especially if the other nations help out. Considering you can already get 50 soldiers from the madrid, this seems likely. Next, the Cult is currently behaving in an almost suicidal manner, imprisoning the most powerful commoners, Psys, aggravating the shadowling-spriggat nation, and the bandits, and the other clans. Even the acadamey is probably annoyed at them for their ant-Psy ideas. Its a wonder that the Cult hasn't been overthrown already, but then again the angry and resentful need a leader. The peoples resistance can fill this void, and lead the whole of Cera Bella to war. Provided that Yawah doesn't just kill all of them.........
Quote from: mikew781 on April 26, 2010, 05:14:17 PM
I think they have a good chance, especially if the other nations help out. Considering you can already get 50 soldiers from the madrid, this seems likely. Next, the Cult is currently behaving in an almost suicidal manner, imprisoning the most powerful commoners, Psys, aggravating the shadowling-spriggat nation, and the bandits, and the other clans. Even the acadamey is probably annoyed at them for their ant-Psy ideas. Its a wonder that the Cult hasn't been overthrown already, but then again the angry and resentful need a leader. The peoples resistance can fill this void, and lead the whole of Cera Bella to war. Provided that Yawah doesn't just kill all of them.........
The Cult is also hiring mercenaries to make up for the purged Guardsmen. Based on the mob of Mission 4, they also have a fanaticly loyal group of followers which would make very dangerous soldiers. I also don't think Psys are very dangerous without any trainning, so having them as scape-goats wouldn't hurt them too much.
mercenaries are rarely as effective as people fighting for their freedom
besides, we could have the nameless one train them all in at least basic techniques
gonna agree with mike
maybe with VERY high persuasiveness and a lot of hard work the hero will continue to gain the trust of other clans and stand a better fighting chance against the cult and of course get help from more civil people who just hate the cult
Quote from: mikew781 on April 26, 2010, 06:32:56 PM
mercenaries are rarely as effective as people fighting for their freedom
besides, we could have the nameless one train them all in at least basic techniques
Highly trained, well equipped mercenaries are better soldiers then poorly armed rebels. That is why mercenary Mike Hoare and his men were easily able to fight off rebels in the Congo.
I don't think it is possible for one man being to be able to single handly train an entire army.
The peoples resistance seems much better equipped in comparison to the Cult than enslaved Africans in the imperial age did to the Belgians. That was maxim guns versus primitve weapons. The current peoples resistance soldiers (your team) seem just as well armed as their strongest foes (so far) and I believe that with Baz's help, the clans help, possibly help from the Shadowling-Spriggat nation, and maybe even the Gelf nation, the Resistance's rescued men could become well equipped.
I'm sure that as long as fate keeps intervening to give the People's Resistance another chance they'll do fine. ;)
Quote from: mikew781 on April 27, 2010, 07:00:26 PM
The peoples resistance seems much better equipped in comparison to the Cult than enslaved Africans in the imperial age did to the Belgians. That was maxim guns versus primitve weapons. The current peoples resistance soldiers (your team) seem just as well armed as their strongest foes (so far) and I believe that with Baz's help, the clans help, possibly help from the Shadowling-Spriggat nation, and maybe even the Gelf nation, the Resistance's rescued men could become well equipped.
So far, the Resistance is less armed then the bandits from mission 2, while the Ravianle Guard has well armed bowmen, spearmen, and swordsmen. The cult also has many powerful psys of their own.
The Resistance is at a disadvantage, so only great tactics could give them the edge.
Quote from: im2smart4u on April 28, 2010, 09:45:12 AM
So far, the Resistance is less armed then the bandits from mission 2, while the Ravianle Guard has well armed bowmen, spearmen, and swordsmen. The cult also has many powerful psys of their own.
Not true-we have the same bows for our bowman and the same sword for our swordsman, etc. The quality of weaponry seems to de a disregarded factor in the comparison
There is no certain way to tell, but I doubt that most of the people of Ravianle would support the cult in a war. They probably don't like the cult that much. Assuming the People' resistances gets more soldiers, they could have a chance if they try to wear down the morale of the city and get everyone against the cult. As things currently stand, I doubt the resistance has the man power to defeat the cult, though that could change.
Quote from: mikew781 on April 28, 2010, 04:41:06 PM
Quote from: im2smart4u on April 28, 2010, 09:45:12 AM
So far, the Resistance is less armed then the bandits from mission 2, while the Ravianle Guard has well armed bowmen, spearmen, and swordsmen. The cult also has many powerful psys of their own.
Not true-we have the same bows for our bowman and the same sword for our swordsman, etc. The quality of weaponry seems to de a disregarded factor in the comparison
I am sure people who just escaped a forced labor camp would be as well armed as wealth military force. ::)
Quote from: yogc on April 28, 2010, 04:52:26 PMThey probably don't like the cult that much.
The angry mob in mission 4 says otherwise.
Well, the mob of civilians might not mind the cult that much, but others might. The mob consisted of people who wanted to see people be executed by the cult, so of course they would be cultist. Other civilians who didn't want to watch an execution by the cult would not have been in the crowd in the first place. The civilians who weren't in the mob, who aren't cultist, and who don't like watching the cult kill people probably don't too much care for the cult. I will admit the mob was not exactly small, but I doubt the majority of the population of Ravianle was there.
If the the Hero's mother beileves there is a Yahaw, then alot of other people beileve in the Cult's god and would follow them.
There were a lot of other people in the mob. However, I don't think the mob accounts for most of Ranvianle's population. There might be plenty of people supporting the cult, but there are plenty more people who don't support the cult. People who had friends in the guard like the main might here about all of the things the cult does to the "non-loyal" guardsmen. They might be scared of the cult, but they wouldn't fully support them.
Actually i'd say the Chances are really slim like 20 or 30%.
I don't think you should be predictable because everyone knows in lots of games and movies the good guys ALWAYS wins.
Quote from: .:Light-God:. on May 08, 2010, 04:39:28 PM
Actually i'd say the Chances are really slim like 20 or 30%.
I don't think you should be predictable because everyone knows in lots of games and movies the good guys ALWAYS wins.
And the good guys have the odds set against them
I think your overestimating the ease with which the rebellion could be wiped out. Even when the government is better armed and better organized, a war against one's own people is very dangerous. Each attack further alienates your own troop and the Cult clearly doesn't hold the level of approval you seem to think (in my opinion). As can be seen from their long lasting and still constant need to dismiss their own soldiers. The only real reasoning behind thinking that the cult is in control would be the mob standing by to watch the execution and A) many of those people were there to simply watch an execution (such things are a spectacle and are often widely viewed in this kind of era as a form of perverse entertainment) and B) the numbers there could hardly be said to equate to a reasonable fraction of the population of a large capital. I'm not saying the resistance would have it easy, but your giving the cult too much credit. In a realistic situation, it would be entirely feasible for the resistance to win, if they were smart (and likely more importantly, lucky) enough.
A Resistance's defeat has already left a low of four members. Since the Cult has proven that they can do it once, then it means the Cult can do it again. I don't think you guys understand the power a military dictatorship holds. The governments of Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussein were only able to destroyed by outside forces despite the multiple resistances in each of their states . Ravinale seems like Iran with Cygnus as Iran's Supreme Leader (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran) and the Ravinale Guard as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guards_Corps).
And I think your citing a lot of examples wherein the leadership had a stronger hold on media and perception of events. Just because few militant dictatorships were powerful doesn't mean they all are. The general atmosphere of the game and the events within set the idea that the Cult is bleeding forces and creating more problems than answers for itself, let alone outside resistances. It isn't a "strong" (at least in the little that I've seen) "dictatorship" (I believe theocracy would be a more apt description). That on top of the fact that the resistance (at least after the first twenty minutes of the game) numbers in the hundreds, not the handful. This number (if the game continues at its current pace) is only likely to swell (given that they would still lose in a straight battle, but that is rarely the tactics of a revolutionary force). That on top of the fact that the cult seems to have little to no control of regions outside its walls, or else just a general disinterest in the goings on beyond its domain (an equally fatal flaw). In the last "crushing defeat" the cult deals to the revolution they lose one man. One. Given he's their leader, but even when highly outnumbered guerrilla forces are notorious for their ability to evade and escape. If they were able to draw out the battle and continue to destabilize the Cult and its hold over the little domain that it actually controls, victory would become much more likely. They don't have to take out the cult in a direct confrontation. They just have to be an apt enough thorn in the lions paw, that it exposes its own vulnerabilities. Take out key members of Cult leadership and its already shaky hold on its land will crumble (such is the weakness of theocratic government. When people see god bleed they stop believing). Take out key members of Resistance leadership and you certainly weaken them, but not nearly to the same extent. I think I started rambling about half way through this so I'm just going to tapper off now.....
Quote from: Guye on May 12, 2010, 01:21:13 AM
In the last "crushing defeat" the cult deals to the revolution they lose one man.
You don't know what you are talking about.
Quote from: CraigSternI should also point out that the People's Resistance was much larger several weeks before Duvalier joined it--he showed up at sort of a low point for them.
The Cult's hold on the government and its people is at least as strong as Iran's government.
But, Ravinale is getting reinforcements, heck we all ready have 50 soldiers from the Madrid, and that number is sure to increase.
Yes, yes, the resistance lost their leader in a battle, but we don't really know how strong the Cult is. The resistance seems quite small, if the Cult has an "army". When we start out, the resistance is a small gang, that is somehow able to not only break into a heavily guarded cult prison, but thwart the enemy's plans at every corner. I don't think the Cult is as strong in Ravinale as you seem to believe. Ravinale doesn't seem to be that big of a city, and they threw out a large portion of the guard. Their strength is all the brainwashed civilians. Of the people we've met, they are either mostly neutral or against the cult. Word of the resistance is very well spread. If the cult really had that much of a hold on the people of Ravinale, such rumors would not spread. Sorry, but the Cult is weak, or at least it is in Ravinale. Perhaps their main forces are off in some distant land, but I don't see the Cult as a force to be reckoned with, just a lot of very persuasive politicians and priests with true warriors few and far between.
I don't want to discount the Cult too much. I really don't think it has the hold or the power that Im2smart4u implies, but he does bring up a good point in that they have managed to crush the Resistance in the past (thank you from the lovely quote from Craig to support your point, I indeed was forgetting a crucial piece of information). What really interests me (seeing as we have so little information to go on), is Craig's mention of a Trial Scene. This could imply that the new leader of the resistance is, at some point, caught. Of course, that's just a wild speculation (as much as any of the wild speculations we are all making at any given post in this topic), but if it were to turn out to be true, it would mean that the Cult holds a larger level of control over the area than I would presume. Of course there's always the large chance that the new MC isn't captured (or that he allows himself to be caught for some other insidious plan). Really there's just not enough information out there to make a real proper analysis on the strengths of each of the forces in play. Most of the information we use for such comparisons are based of assumption, presumption, or vague hinting and not from solid fact.
Still its always been my opinion that the largest threat from the cult will be the larger players. Its not their army you need to worry about. The General and the (presumably) rare but powerful Psy's in the Cult (not to mention the possibility of actually going up against a real god) are likely to be the primary concerns. After all this is an RPG universe. Everyone knows the General will be at least as strong as twelve men.
Quote from: Zhampir on May 12, 2010, 09:03:29 PM
But, Ravinale is getting reinforcements, heck we all ready have 50 soldiers from the Madrid, and that number is sure to increase.
Yes, yes, the resistance lost their leader in a battle, but we don't really know how strong the Cult is. The resistance seems quite small, if the Cult has an "army". When we start out, the resistance is a small gang, that is somehow able to not only break into a heavily guarded cult prison, but thwart the enemy's plans at every corner. I don't think the Cult is as strong in Ravinale as you seem to believe. Ravinale doesn't seem to be that big of a city, and they threw out a large portion of the guard. Their strength is all the brainwashed civilians. Of the people we've met, they are either mostly neutral or against the cult. Word of the resistance is very well spread. If the cult really had that much of a hold on the people of Ravinale, such rumors would not spread. Sorry, but the Cult is weak, or at least it is in Ravinale. Perhaps their main forces are off in some distant land, but I don't see the Cult as a force to be reckoned with, just a lot of very persuasive politicians and priests with true warriors few and far between.
A) The Marid clan can't be that powerful since Al'al sees them as no threat towards the Order of the Black Rose
B) I wouldn't consider low-equiped mercenaries as "a heavily guarded cult prison."
C) The player can't walk through all parts of the city for gameplay reasons, so the city is much bigger thin you think
D) I don't know how you can downplay the power of the Ravinale Guard as an Army
E) Sorry, but the Cult isn't weak, because this would be a boring game if the Hero had the advantage
Quote from: Guye on May 12, 2010, 09:21:02 PM
This could imply that the new leader of the resistance is, at some point, caught.
Darime (http://telepath.wikia.com/wiki/Darime) was killed on the battlefield in a duel with General D'Kah.
By new leader I meant Griffin, or possibly the main character...
I wonder if this should have been posted in the politics section.
Still, the resistance has a chance; the cult is alienating all the psy's, so they would be very helpful.
Judging by how powerful the main was prior to me losing my save, I'm going to say the resistance can't lose. 200 back stab damage = auto-win.
Quote from: jojolagger on May 19, 2010, 09:10:43 PM
Judging by how powerful the main was prior to me losing my save, I'm going to say the resistance can't lose. 200 back stab damage = auto-win.
One man could never defeat an entire army.
How do you people find the time to over train that much?
Quote from: im2smart4u on May 19, 2010, 10:18:16 PM
Quote from: jojolagger on May 19, 2010, 09:10:43 PM
Judging by how powerful the main was prior to me losing my save, I'm going to say the resistance can't lose. 200 back stab damage = auto-win.
One man could never defeat an entire army.
How do you people find the time to over train that much?
When that man can have over 12 archers shooting at him, be surrounded by swordsmen attacking, last several minutes like this, and then fully recover while killing 3 enemies. He can take down an army.
I was really bored that week.
Heh, we're talking about indefinite leveling of psychic powers. Anything is possible.
And I find plenty of time, with my custom maps of course.^^
Try being able to survive 3rounds of 8black spriggats attacking you.
Quote from: jojolagger on May 19, 2010, 10:40:08 PMWhen that man can have over 12 archers shooting at him, be surrounded by swordsmen attacking, last several minutes like this, and then fully recover while killing 3 enemies. He can take down an army.
When did 12 archers and a couple of swordsmen become an entire army?
Quote from: im2smart4u on May 20, 2010, 02:28:27 PM
Quote from: jojolagger on May 19, 2010, 10:40:08 PMWhen that man can have over 12 archers shooting at him, be surrounded by swordsmen attacking, last several minutes like this, and then fully recover while killing 3 enemies. He can take down an army.
When did 12 archers and a couple of swordsmen become an entire army?
It didn't. That was a quick rough estimate of how many enemies could attack you at one time.
The number of people attacking you at once isn't a good storyline direction, so how about having army size (people from Madrid, etc.) influence how fast reinforcements come in the last/one of the last battles
Quote from: im2smart4u on April 30, 2010, 08:08:57 AM
If the the Hero's mother beileves there is a Yahaw, then alot of other people beileve in the Cult's god and would follow them.
Wasn't she brainwashed, though?
Naturally, I'm biased since this is a GAME and in GAMES, the good guys almost ALWAYS win. As long as the Cult doesn't find the Resistance, they have time to build up support from numerous factions (the Clans, possibly Psy Academy, maybe a mercenary faction if they get some gold, angry citizens) and could eventually overthrow the Cult.
The premise of this is flawed. All of the members of the resistance could be killed and the resistance itself could still succeed. So long as at some point in the future, someone wonders "How did it end up like this?" And finds some proof of the cults wrong doing.
Hey, is that TRPG 4 I hear?
I agree with jojolagger's argument, but this is about the specific People's Resistance of Ravinale (I was about to write Republic of China for some reason. ???) Yes, at one point the Cult is almost guaranteed to fall, but whether or not the People's Resistance will cause it or not is the question.