Chances for the Peoples' Resistance

[MikeW781]

So far, the Resistance is less armed then the bandits from mission 2, while the Ravianle Guard has well armed bowmen, spearmen, and swordsmen.  The cult also has many powerful psys of their own.

Not true-we have the same bows for our bowman and the same sword for our swordsman, etc. The quality of weaponry seems to de a disregarded factor in the comparison

[cyso]

There is no certain way to tell, but I doubt that most of the people of Ravianle would support the cult in a war. They probably don't like the cult that much. Assuming the People' resistances gets more soldiers, they could have a chance if they try to wear down the morale of the city and get everyone against the cult. As things currently stand, I doubt the resistance has the man power to defeat the cult, though that could change.

[SmartyPants]

So far, the Resistance is less armed then the bandits from mission 2, while the Ravianle Guard has well armed bowmen, spearmen, and swordsmen.  The cult also has many powerful psys of their own.

Not true-we have the same bows for our bowman and the same sword for our swordsman, etc. The quality of weaponry seems to de a disregarded factor in the comparison

I am sure people who just escaped a forced labor camp would be as well armed as wealth military force. ::)

They probably don't like the cult that much.

The angry mob in mission 4 says otherwise.

[cyso]

Well, the mob of civilians might not mind the cult that much, but others might. The mob consisted of people who wanted to see people be executed by the cult, so of course they would be cultist. Other civilians who didn't want to watch an execution by the cult would not have been in the crowd in the first place. The civilians who weren't in the mob, who aren't cultist, and who don't like watching the cult kill people probably don't too much care for the cult. I will admit the mob was not exactly small, but I doubt the majority of the population of Ravianle was there.

[SmartyPants]

If the the Hero's mother beileves there is a Yahaw, then alot of other people beileve in the Cult's god and would follow them.

[cyso]

There were a lot of other people in the mob. However, I don't think the mob accounts for most of Ranvianle's population. There might be plenty of people supporting the cult, but there are plenty more people who don't support the cult. People who had friends in the guard like the main might here about all of the things the cult does to the "non-loyal" guardsmen. They might be scared of the cult, but they wouldn't fully support them.

[.:Light-God:.]

Actually i'd say the Chances are really slim like 20 or 30%.
I don't think you should be predictable because everyone knows in lots of games and movies the good guys ALWAYS wins.

[SmartyPants]

Actually i'd say the Chances are really slim like 20 or 30%.
I don't think you should be predictable because everyone knows in lots of games and movies the good guys ALWAYS wins.

And the good guys have the odds set against them

[Guye]

I think your overestimating the ease with which the rebellion could be wiped out. Even when the government is better armed and better organized, a war against one's own people is very dangerous. Each attack further alienates your own troop and the Cult clearly doesn't hold the level of approval you seem to think (in my opinion). As can be seen from their long lasting and still constant need to dismiss their own soldiers. The only real reasoning behind thinking that the cult is in control would be the mob standing by to watch the execution and A) many of those people were there to simply watch an execution (such things are a spectacle and are often widely viewed in this kind of era as a form of perverse entertainment) and B) the numbers there could hardly be said to equate to a reasonable fraction of the population of a large capital. I'm not saying the resistance would have it easy, but your giving the cult too much credit. In a realistic situation, it would be entirely feasible for the resistance to win, if they were smart (and likely more importantly, lucky) enough.

[SmartyPants]

A Resistance's defeat has already left a low of four members.  Since the Cult has proven that they can do it once, then it means the Cult can do it again.  I don't think you guys understand the power a military dictatorship holds.  The governments of Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussein were only able to destroyed by outside forces despite the multiple resistances in each of their states . Ravinale seems like Iran with Cygnus as Iran's Supreme Leader and the Ravinale Guard as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

[Guye]

And I think your citing a lot of examples wherein the leadership had a stronger hold on media and perception of events. Just because few militant dictatorships were powerful doesn't mean they all are. The general atmosphere of the game and the events within set the idea that the Cult is bleeding forces and creating more problems than answers for itself, let alone outside resistances. It isn't a "strong" (at least in the little that I've seen) "dictatorship" (I believe theocracy would be a more apt description). That on top of the fact that the resistance (at least after the first twenty minutes of the game) numbers in the hundreds, not the handful. This number (if the game continues at its current pace) is only likely to swell (given that they would still lose in a straight battle, but that is rarely the tactics of a revolutionary force). That on top of the fact that the cult seems to have little to no control of regions outside its walls, or else just a general disinterest in the goings on beyond its domain (an equally fatal flaw). In the last "crushing defeat" the cult deals to the revolution they lose one man. One. Given he's their leader, but even when highly outnumbered guerrilla forces are notorious for their ability to evade and escape. If they were able to draw out the battle and continue to destabilize the Cult and its hold over the little domain that it actually controls, victory would become much more likely. They don't have to take out the cult in a direct confrontation. They just have to be an apt enough thorn in the lions paw, that it exposes its own vulnerabilities. Take out key members of Cult leadership and its already shaky hold on its land will crumble (such is the weakness of theocratic government. When people see god bleed they stop believing). Take out key members of Resistance leadership and you certainly weaken them, but not nearly to the same extent. I think I started rambling about half way through this so I'm just going to tapper off now.....

[SmartyPants]

In the last "crushing defeat" the cult deals to the revolution they lose one man.

You don't know what you are talking about.

I should also point out that the People's Resistance was much larger several weeks before Duvalier joined it--he showed up at sort of a low point for them.

The Cult's hold on the government and its people is at least as strong as Iran's government.

[Zhampir]

But, Ravinale is getting reinforcements, heck we all ready have 50 soldiers from the Madrid, and that number is sure to increase.
Yes, yes, the resistance lost their leader in a battle, but we don't really know how strong the Cult is. The resistance seems quite small, if the Cult has an "army". When we start out, the resistance is a small gang, that is somehow able to not only break into a heavily guarded cult prison, but thwart the enemy's plans at every corner. I don't think the Cult is as strong in Ravinale as you seem to believe. Ravinale doesn't seem to be that big of a city, and they threw out a large portion of the guard. Their strength is all the brainwashed civilians. Of the people we've met, they are either mostly neutral or against the cult. Word of the resistance is very well spread. If the cult really had that much of a hold on the people of Ravinale, such rumors would not spread. Sorry, but the Cult is weak, or at least it is in Ravinale. Perhaps their main forces are off in some distant land, but I don't see the Cult as a force to be reckoned with, just a lot of very persuasive politicians and priests with true warriors few and far between.

[Guye]

I don't want to discount the Cult too much. I really don't think it has the hold or the power that Im2smart4u implies, but he does bring up a good point in that they have managed to crush the Resistance in the past (thank you from the lovely quote from Craig to support your point, I indeed was forgetting a crucial piece of information). What really interests me (seeing as we have so little information to go on), is Craig's mention of a Trial Scene. This could imply that the new leader of the resistance is, at some point, caught. Of course, that's just a wild speculation (as much as any of the wild speculations we are all making at any given post in this topic), but if it were to turn out to be true, it would mean that the Cult holds a larger level of control over the area than I would presume. Of course there's always the large chance that the new MC isn't captured (or that he allows himself to be caught for some other insidious plan). Really there's just not enough information out there to make a real proper analysis on the strengths of each of the forces in play. Most of the information we use for such comparisons are based of assumption, presumption, or vague hinting and not from solid fact.

Still its always been my opinion that the largest threat from the cult will be the larger players. Its not their army you need to worry about. The General and the (presumably) rare but powerful Psy's in the Cult (not to mention the possibility of actually going up against a real god) are likely to be the primary concerns. After all this is an RPG universe. Everyone knows the General will be at least as strong as twelve men.

[SmartyPants]

But, Ravinale is getting reinforcements, heck we all ready have 50 soldiers from the Madrid, and that number is sure to increase.
Yes, yes, the resistance lost their leader in a battle, but we don't really know how strong the Cult is. The resistance seems quite small, if the Cult has an "army". When we start out, the resistance is a small gang, that is somehow able to not only break into a heavily guarded cult prison, but thwart the enemy's plans at every corner. I don't think the Cult is as strong in Ravinale as you seem to believe. Ravinale doesn't seem to be that big of a city, and they threw out a large portion of the guard. Their strength is all the brainwashed civilians. Of the people we've met, they are either mostly neutral or against the cult. Word of the resistance is very well spread. If the cult really had that much of a hold on the people of Ravinale, such rumors would not spread. Sorry, but the Cult is weak, or at least it is in Ravinale. Perhaps their main forces are off in some distant land, but I don't see the Cult as a force to be reckoned with, just a lot of very persuasive politicians and priests with true warriors few and far between.

A) The Marid clan can't be that powerful since Al'al sees them as no threat towards the Order of the Black Rose
B) I wouldn't consider low-equiped mercenaries as "a heavily guarded cult prison."
C) The player can't walk through all parts of the city for gameplay reasons, so the city is much bigger thin you think
D) I don't know how you can downplay the power of the Ravinale Guard as an Army
E) Sorry, but the Cult isn't weak, because this would be a boring game if the Hero had the advantage

This could imply that the new leader of the resistance is, at some point, caught.

Darime was killed on the battlefield in a duel with General D'Kah.