Universal health care bill passes U.S. Congress

[Presentiment]

And then when legal issues arise its going to be a mess compromising between multiple states' judicial systems.

[SmartyPants]

When Obama gives amensty to 11 million illegal immigrants, will we be able to afford to give them all free health care too? 

[Pylons]

Healthcare for 11 million is a drop in the bucket even if all the same rights are extended to illegal immigrants.

[SmartyPants]

Healthcare for 11 million is a drop in the bucket even if all the same rights are extended to illegal immigrants.

2.6 trillion dollars is a big drop.

Medicaid and Medicare costs are likely to rise faster than the rate of general inflation. To project the future governmental costs of amnesty recipients during retirement, this paper has used the current net governmental costs for elderly immigrants with skill levels similar to the amnesty population. These net governmental costs amount to $17,000 per person per year in 2004; half of this cost was medical care expenditures under the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The cost of government Medicaid and Medicare benefits has tended to escalate rapidly both because medical cost inflation has been greater than the general rate of inflation in the economy and because the range of medical services provided by these programs has expanded. The cost of Medicare and Medicaid services is likely to continue to increase more rapidly than inflation for the foreseeable future. As a consequence, the actual retirement costs for amnesty recipients will almost certainly be greater than $2.6 trillion, even after adjusting for general inflation.

[CraigStern]

The Heritage Foundation is a partisan think tank; it's best to take its publications with a grain of salt.

Consider, for instance: the author mentions that undocumented immigrants have a poverty rate roughly twice that of the general population, yet does not appear to factor this into his calculations about how many people will be able to obtain legal permanent resident status. (LPR status is required in order to be eligible for benefits under Medicare and Medicaid, and one cannot obtain LPR status without paying a $4,000 fine.)

But more importantly, this study only examines one side of the equation. Sure, having more citizens available for government benefits will increase costs. What the author fails to mention, however, is that by bringing undocumented immigrants out of the shadows, the government will also have a new source of tax revenue to pay those costs. Many undocumented immigrants are currently paid "under the table," dodging federal income taxes and payroll taxes on money they earn working. Amnesty gives them an incentive to start paying into the system (and, by the same token, removes much of the incentive employers have to hire them in place of citizens, since employers will have to start paying taxes for them as well).

[SmartyPants]

The Unaffordable Care Act will increase the average individual-market insurance premiums by 99% for men and 62% for women.

Sure, having more citizens available for government benefits will increase costs. What the author fails to mention, however, is that by bringing undocumented immigrants out of the shadows, the government will also have a new source of tax revenue to pay those costs. Many undocumented immigrants are currently paid "under the table," dodging federal income taxes and payroll taxes on money they earn working. Amnesty gives them an incentive to start paying into the system (and, by the same token, removes much of the incentive employers have to hire them in place of citizens, since employers will have to start paying taxes for them as well).

The uneducated illegal immigrants from third world countries will cost the government way, way more than they will ever pay in taxes.  If the illegals are granted amnesty, then they will likely add their numbers to the 43% of Americans who don't pay any federal income taxes, yet still ask for expensive entitlement programs.

[CraigStern]

For the reasons explained here, directly comparing rates pre-ACA with the rates of plans under the ACA is like comparing apples and oranges, since the ACA forbids unethical practices that distorted premium prices prior to its passage: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/02/fact-check-premiums-will-go-up/

Where plans actually offering similar benefits were compared, the rates remained stable on average:

The study used modeling to look at ten "representative states" as well as the country as a whole. In five of those ten states, RAND finds no increases when the costs of individual plans offered prior to Obamacare are compared to cost estimates for comparable plans offered in the exchanges. Consumers in three states – Minnesota, North Dakota and Ohio – could see their premiums increase by as much as 43%, while in the final two states – Louisiana and New Mexico – consumers could see their premiums decline. Nationwide, the study estimates that premiums will remain stable.

The actual effects differed by state.

[SmartyPants]

There isn't a single government agency or division that runs efficiently; do we really want an organization that developed the U.S. Tax Code handling something as complex as health care?

It's one thing to be philosophically opposed to government involvement in health care. That's a personal belief, not susceptible to proof. But you can't just walk up and say "government is always inefficient, therefore this program will be poorly managed and wasteful." That's a factual assertion, and you need to have a factual basis for making it.

About three years ago, I warned you guys that the government isn't competent enough to run the country's heath care system.  Now we have a broken website that could only allow five people to sign up when the government expected to get several thousands of people enrolled.  If Katherine Sebelius messed up as bad as she did in the private industry, then she would have been fired for her incompetence. Instead, we keep the inept head of the HHS, because Obama finds politics more important than having capable employees.

[SmartyPants]

Lie of the Year: "If you like your health care plan, you can keep it": Approximately 4 million Americans received cancellation letters from their insurance companies due to Obamacare, and the Obama administration has known that was going to happen since three years ago.

[SmartyPants]

Obamacare will make insurance even more expensive than previously predicted, because not enough young, healthy people signed up on the exchange to supplement the cost of all the sick, old people who have signed up.